The real effects of Covid-19 not seen in Turkish unemployment data

In July, the unemployment rate in Turkey was realized as 13.4% compared to the same month last year’s 13,9%, with a decrease of 0.5 points.

In July, the unemployment rate in Turkey was realized as 13.4% compared to the same month last year’s 13,9%, with a decrease of 0.5 points. When compared to the previous month, it is observed that the unadjusted unemployment rate did not change. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was announced as 13.6%, decreasing by 0.5 points compared to the same month of the previous year and the previous month. According to the refined data, while the unemployment rate among young people was 25.8%; Non-agricultural unemployment stood at 15.9%.

 

When we look at the comparable periods, July 2019 - July 2020, it is seen that there is a 3.6 point decrease in the labor force participation rate between the relevant periods with adjusted data. The workforce, which was 32 million 509 thousand people in the similar period of 2019, declined to 30 million 855 thousand people in July 2020. The labor force participation rate has decreased from 52.9% to 49.3%. Again, looking at seasonally adjusted data; While the employment rate decreased by 2.8 points compared to the same period of the previous year and became 42.6%, there was an increase of 540 thousand people in seasonally adjusted employment compared to the previous month. During this period, seasonally adjusted employment according to economic activity decreased by 28 thousand in the agricultural sector, 57 thousand in the industrial sector, 111 thousand in the construction sector and 399 thousand in the service sector.

 

In summer, the unemployment rate decreases seasonally, generally with the assistance of the tourism and agricultural sectors. After the partial closure in the April-May period economic activity increased with normalization after June, as well as the government supports implemented, ensuring that the real effects of the Covid-19 epidemic on the employment market were not reflected in the figures. As the unemployment data fell 3 months behind although we were in October, the unemployment rate remained low with the effect of summer seasonality in the current data. Normalization in economic activity and government support continues, but it is expected that especially the decommissioning of economic support and the lifting of the dismissal ban will cause a real loss on the employment side. In the current situation, the companies not increasing employment within the framework of the continuing pandemic uncertainty and the high number of cases will cause the unemployment rate to remain high.

Kaynak Tera Yatırım
Hibya Haber Ajansı

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