Turkey: Industrial production increases by 8.1% annually in September

According to calendar adjusted data, Turkey’s industrial production in September increased by 8.1% compared to the same month of the previous year; Seasonal and calendar adjusted industrial production, on the other hand, increased by 1.7% compared to the previous month.

According to the unadjusted data, there was a 11.2% increase in industrial production compared to the same period of the previous year.


In September, we see slightly higher industrial production growth rates than we expected. We had an annual expectation of 7.3% on the calendar adjusted index. As of September, we do not see a much slowdown effect. With the announcement of September data, an increase of 7.7% is observed compared to the same quarter of the previous year. In the 2Q20 period, industrial production contracted by 16.9% compared to the previous year, while GDP contracted by 9.9%. We expect the trend in industrial production to continue in the next month, as the growth momentum in leading indicators such as capacity utilization and PMI continues in October.


When we look at the details; Mining and quarrying increased by 3.2% on a monthly basis, while it increased by 0.4% on an annual basis. While there was an increase of 1.4% on a monthly basis in the manufacturing industry, there was a growth of 8.5% on an annual basis. In the electricity, gas and steam group, there was an increase of 4.2% on a monthly basis, and an increase of 8.6% on an annual basis. On a monthly basis, capital goods increased by 4.5%, energy by 3%, durable consumption goods by 2.8%, intermediate goods by 0.7% and non-durable consumer goods by 0.6%. Considering the annual changes in the related items; durable consumer goods increased by 16.2%, intermediate goods by 10.9%, capital goods by 10.4%, energy by 2.5% and non-durable consumer goods by 2.4%.


Industrial production growth in 3Q20 increased by 7.7% on an adjusted basis compared to the previous year and by 30.3% compared to the previous quarter. Towards the end of the year, there will be some slowdown effect. The increasing effect of increasing exchange rates on intermediate goods costs and the slowdown effect of rising loan rates will bring the current growth trend down in 4Q20. Outside, the slowing down effect of new quarantine measures on the foreign economies may cause orders and production to reduce this rapid trend in the coming months.


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