While the net revision of the previous two months was 15 thousand, the private sector increased by 906 thousand after the 892 thousand increase in the previous month. The private sector was expected to create 700,000 jobs, but the ADP announced during the week gave some negative signals. The fact that there were no problems from the private sector had a positive effect on the October NFP. The decline of the unemployment rate from 7.9% to 6.9% may intensify the fiscal stimulus package negotiations. In an environment where PMI data is still in the growth zone, it may strengthen the Republicans' argument that "the economy is not that bad actually".
While the participation rate came from 61.4% to 61.7%, the change in household employment came from the previous 275 thousand to 2.243.000. The manufacturing sector continues to increase employment, after the 60 thousand increase in the previous month, there is an increase of 38 thousand. However, as the virus outbreak will hit the service industry deeper, the real slowdown in the economy will come from this channel. Average hourly earnings are around 0.1% monthly and 4.5% annually. At this rate, we will see artificial increases as the economy slows down, because the deepening of the crisis will not reflect a real income growth effect, as low-wage employment will still be left out.
Biden took the lead in Pennsylvania, after Georgia. It is said that Trump will admit defeat with the advice he received from his advisors. This means there will be no Supreme Court process. This eliminates the possibility of volatility due to election uncertainty. We’ll look at the situations of Biden trading, financial expansion, and negotiations with Republicans in the Senate.
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